水资源短缺风险因子的筛选模型

水资源短缺评价首先需要确定指标体系,投影寻踪模型与灰色关联度法相结合,可以有效地筛选出水资源短缺风险因子,为进一步进行风险评价奠定了基础,同时也为制定风险的防范措施和对策提供了理论依据.综合应用这两种模型,对北京市2001～2009年的水资源短缺风险进行研究,结果表明:降水量、日照时数、雨日数、单位GDP污水排放量、人均GDP、工业总产值占有率、污水处理率和水循环使用率这8个指标是北京市水资源短缺的主要风险因子.     

MDPs with setwise continuous transition probabilities

This paper describes the structure of optimal policies for infinite-state Markov Decision Processes with setwise continuous transition probabilities. The action sets may be noncompact. The objective criteria are either the expected total discounted and undiscounted costs or average costs per unit time. The analysis of optimality equations and inequalities is based on the optimal selection theorem for inf-compact functions introduced in this paper.     

最小成本生成树对策上Shapley值的新刻画及其应用

2002年,Kar利用有效性、无交叉补贴性、群独立性和等处理性四个公理对最小成本生成树对策上的Shapley值进行了刻画。本文提出了“群有效性”这一公理,利用这一公理和“等处理性”两个公理,给出了最小成本生成树对策上Shapley值的一种新的公理化刻画。最后,运用最小成本生成树对策的Shapley值,对网络服务的费用分摊问题进行了分析。     

Cost‐efficient monitoring of continuous‐time stochastic processes based on discrete observations

Planning a cost‐efficient monitoring policy of stochastic processes arises from many industrial problems. We formulate a simple discrete‐time monitoring problem of continuous‐time stochastic processes with its applications to several industrial problems. A key in our model is a doubling trick of the variables, with which we can construct an algorithm to solve the problem. The cost‐efficient monitoring policy balancing between the observation cost and information loss is governed by an optimality equation of a fixed point type, which is solvable with an iterative algorithm based on the Feynman‐Kac formula. This is a new linkage between monitoring problems and mathematical sciences. We show regularity results of the optimization problem and present a numerical algorithm for its approximation. A problem having model ambiguity is presented as well. The presented model is applied to problems of environment, ecology, and energy, having qualitatively different target stochastic processes with each other.     

Controllability cost of conservative systems: resolvent condition and transmutation

This article concerns the exact controllability of unitary groups on Hilbert spaces with unbounded control operator. It provides a necessary and sufficient condition not involving time which blends a resolvent estimate and an observability inequality. By the transmutation of controls in some time L for the corresponding second-order conservative system, it is proved that the cost of controls in time T for the unitary group grows at most like exp(αL²/T) as T tends to 0. In the application to the cost of fast controls for the Schrödinger equation, L is the length of the longest ray of geometric optics which does not intersect the control region. This article also provides observability resolvent estimates implying fast smoothing effect controllability at low cost, and underscores that the controllability cost of a system is not changed by taking its tensor product with a conservative system.     

A periodical replacement model based on cumulative repair‐cost limit

This paper considers a periodical replacement model based on a cumulative repair‐cost limit, whose concept uses the information of all repair costs to decide whether the system is repaired or replaced. The failures of the system can be divided into two types. One is minor failure that is assumed to be corrected by minimal repair, while the other is serious failure where the system is damaged completely. When a minor failure occurs, the corresponding repair cost is evaluated and minimal repair is then executed if this accumulated repair cost is less than a pre‐determined limit L, otherwise, the system is replaced by a new one. The system is also replaced at scheduled time T or at serious failure. Long‐run expected cost per unit time is formulated and the optimal period T* minimizing that cost is also verified to be finite and unique under some specific conditions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extended optimal inspection policies for a system in storage

A system such as missiles and spare parts of aircraft has to perform a normal operation in a severe environment at any time when it is used. However, the system is in storage for a long time from the delivery to the usage and its reliability goes down with time. Thus, a system in storage should be inspected and maintained at periodic times to hold a higher reliability than is prespecified.The following inspection model is considered: A system has three types of units, where unit 1 is maintained, unit 21 is not maintained but is replaced and unit 22 is neither maintained nor replaced. The system is overhauled if its reliability becomes lower than a prespecified probability. The number of replacements and time until overhaul are derived. Using these results, the average cost is obtained and both an optimal inspection time and an optimal replacement time to minimize it are numerically discussed.     

指数分布族中矩估计序贯置信区间

在矩估计的基础上,对于给定精度(2d)及置信系数(α),建立了对参数函数g(θ) 的一个序贯置信区间估计的程序．并讨论了在一定条件下,当d→0,它的渐近相合性、渐近有效性及有界的最优费用差(EN(d)-n(d))等渐近性质．     

有预算限制的最大多种物资流问题

研究有预算限制的最大多种物资流问题,给出了这个问题的不依赖物资数k的全多项式时间近似算法,其算法复杂性是O~(-ε2m2).同时,利用有预算限制的最大多种物资流问题的研究结果,我们也得到了费用最小的最大多种物资流问题的近似算法和算法复杂性.     

有限时区非线性系统的最优切换控制

This paper proposes a optimal control problem for a general nonlinear systems with finitely many admissible control settings and with costs assigned to switching of controls. With dynamic programming and viscosity solution theory we show that the switching lower-value function is a viscosity solution of the appropriate systems of quasi-variational inequalities(the appropriate generalization of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation in this context) and that the minimal such switching-storage function is equal to the continuous switching lower-value for the game. With the lower value function a optimal switching control is designed for minimizing the cost of running the systems.